货币政策溢出效应和国际协调机制研究

基于国际货币政策溢出效应理论,选用2006年11月至2017年7月的月度数据,采用TVP-VAR-SV模型分析美国货币政策变化对中国产出的动态影响,结果表明美国货币政策的变动对中国产出具有显著的溢出效应,该溢出效应在不同滞后期和不同时点上具有较大差异,尤其当美国货币政策发生方向性变动时对中国产出增长的影响非常显著;不同时期美国货币政策的变化对人民币有效汇率和中美贸易差额在影响方向和程度上均存在着较大差异,并且人民币有效汇率和中美贸易差额的变动反过来对中美利差和中国产出增长也存在着时变性影响。     

共享单车信用监管机制的行为经济学实验研究

共享单车具有一部分公共产品的属性,也同样面对着负外部性的问题。为了规范共享单车用户使用行为,信用监管机制和政府监管等解决方式被提出,但相关研究偏政策性,摩拜公司等共享单车企业已建立的信用监管机制实施效果不佳。运用行为经济学的前景理论、有限理性模型进行实证分析,通过经济学行为实验的方式模拟现实生活中公众对共享单车使用和损耗的状况,收集行为数据进行深入剖析信用监管机制对共享单车用户使用行为规范的效力;在实验前后对参与者进行问卷调查,将问卷调查的数据与实验行为的数据进行比对分析。实验表明,信用监管机制的引入有效规范用户使用行为,负面语境的信用监管机制对用户行为更有约束力,加入实时反馈比无实时反馈机制效果更好。     

Estimation Bias in Complete-Case Analysis in Crossover Studies with Missing Data

Crossover designs are used often in clinical trials. It is not uncommon that subjects discontinue before completing all treatment periods in a crossover study. Despite availability of statistical methodologies utilizing all available data and software for obtaining valid inferences under the assumption of missing at random (MAR), naïve approaches, such as the complete case (CC) analysis, which is only valid with a strong assumption of missing completely at random are still widely used in practice. In this article, we obtain the analytical form of the estimation bias of treatment effects with CC for linear mixed models. We use simulation studies to examine the inflation of Type I error and efficiency loss in the inferences with CC under MAR. Invalidity and inefficiency of two other commonly used approaches for defining analyzed data in the presence of missing data, including data from at least two periods in three period crossover and available cases for a specific comparison of interest, are also demonstrated through simulation studies.     

Empirical bayes shrinkage estimation of reliability in the exponential distribution

In this paper we propose two empirical Bayes shrinkage estimators for the reliability of the exponential distribution and study their properties. Under the uniform prior distribution and the inverted gamma prior distribution these estimators are developed and compared with a preliminary test estimator and with a shrinkage testimator in terms of mean squared error. The proposed empirical Bayes shrinkage estimator under the inverted gamma prior distribution is shown to be preferable to the preliminary test estimator and the shrinkage testimator when the prior value of mean life is clsoe to the true mean life.     

Performance of standard imputation methods for missing quality of life data as covariate in survival analysis based on simulations from the International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials VI and VII*

Abstract

Imputation methods for missing data on a time-dependent variable within time-dependent Cox models are investigated in a simulation study. Quality of life (QoL) assessments were removed from the complete simulated datasets, which have a positive relationship between QoL and disease-free survival (DFS) and delayed chemotherapy and DFS, by missing at random and missing not at random (MNAR) mechanisms. Standard imputation methods were applied before analysis. Method performance was influenced by missing data mechanism, with one exception for simple imputation. The greatest bias occurred under MNAR and large effect sizes. It is important to carefully investigate the missing data mechanism.     

A course in constructing effective displays of data for pharmaceutical research personnel

Interpreting data and communicating effectively through graphs and tables are requisite skills for statisticians and non‐statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry. However, the quality of visual displays of data in the medical and pharmaceutical literature and at scientific conferences is severely lacking. We describe an interactive, workshop‐driven, 2‐day short course that we constructed for pharmaceutical research personnel to learn these skills. The examples in the course and the workshop datasets source from our professional experiences, the scientific literature, and the mass media. During the course, the participants are exposed to and gain hands‐on experience with the principles of visual and graphical perception, design, and construction of both graphic and tabular displays of quantitative and qualitative information. After completing the course, with a critical eye, the participants are able to construct, revise, critique, and interpret graphic and tabular displays according to an extensive set of guidelines. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

农村生活垃圾分类长效机制建设的社会基础

农村生活垃圾分类长效机制建设是农村人居环境整治的重要组成部分。当前生活垃圾分类越来越成为全国各地农村尝试开展与实施的环境治理工程,但如何建立生活垃圾分类长效机制一直困扰着地方环境管理者。通过对浙北码头村的案例分析,总结该村在长期实践中的生活垃圾分类长效机制建设经验以及不同主体参与垃圾分类的行动策略,并深入挖掘长效机制建设背后的社会结构、社会关系、地方文化等社会基础。最后,基于理论分析与实地调查的互动联系,提出内生于村庄社会的制度规范、有效的组织动员结构、可适用的治理技术手段是当前农村生活垃圾分类长效机制建设的社会基础,以此来反映符合农村社会特点、多元主体共同参与的环境治理长效机制建设的理论内涵与实践路径。     

论集中力量办大事的理论意涵与实践趋势——基于“五何”维度的分析

作为充分彰显中国特色社会主义制度显著优势的治国理政模式,集中力量办大事在近年的官方话语和学术研究中均是一个高频使用的重要概念。从内在涵义来看,集中力量办大事具体是指基于科学的决策,立足于全国的整体和大局,在中国共产党的集中统一领导下,调动各方面积极性,科学有效调配各领域各层级资源,集中来解决我国革命、建设和改革中的重大任务、关键问题与突出难题的治国理政模式。从演进过程来看,我们实施的集中力量办大事,既不是自古就有的,也不是中国古代“集中力量办大工程”的沿袭,而是中华人民共和国成立以来历经几代领导集体提炼总结而成的。在我国革命、建设和改革的不同时期,之所以要实行“集中力量办大事”,是由于世情、国情、党情等多重因素共同作用使然。集中力量办大事之所以能有效运行并取得成功,有着深刻而具体的政治、经济、文化和社会等方面的凭借依托机制。从未来实践趋势来看,集中力量办大事这一治国理政模式不仅要长期坚持实践,更要适应新形势和开拓新机制来推进其提升治理效能。     

双循环驱动我国城市产业转移效应研究

基于201个城市的相关数据,利用动态面板模型和空间杜宾模型,实证分析了内循环、外循环和双循环对产业转移的影响。研究结果表明：前期产业转移在一定程度上会影响后期产业转移,前一期当地产业比例较大,其后产业转移受到的促进作用也较大;内循环、外循环和双循环均对产业转移起到显著的正向促进作用,东部城市受到的促进作用略高于中西部城市;要素流动在产业转移中发挥着重要作用,劳动力要素流动、技术要素流动和资本要素流动不仅受到内、外循环和双循环的促进作用,同时对产业转移也起到一定的促进作用;产业转移具有空间相关性,产业在空间上倾向于向产业转入较高的城区转移。为此,我国在政策上应进一步加快推动内循环,促进外循环,关注要素流动在产业转移中的重要作用,合理分配要素资源。     

长期护理需求评估体系建设研究——基于地方试点与德国实践

长期护理需求评估是长期护理保险筹资与给付的联结点,直接决定了保险给付,并对长期护理保险筹资有重要影响.当前我国试点地方在长期护理需求评估制度的设计上分歧较大,虽积累了差异化的经验与案例,但地区分割不利于社会公平与社会流动.应立足于长期护理保险的社会保险属性,结合社会实际与试点效果,适当借鉴德国经验,统筹设计长期护理需求评估体系,通过"法律+行政法规+部门规章"的规范形式,精准定位评估对象,明确独立的评估主体、科学设计评估指标与评估工具、严格规范评估程序等确保评估结果的科学、客观与公正,并根据评估结果进行分级分类给付,实现长期护理保险资源流向精准.